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Av Viktor Bertung - 12 mars 2011 13:24

Östermalmsgatan sträcker sig i en lång båge över stadsdelen och är, om inte kvarterens paradgata, så åtminstone övre Östermalms prestigemässiga pulsåder. Jag har alltid tyckt hjärtligt illa om den här delen av Stockholm. Gatorna är tysta och folktomma på kvällarna. Sekelskifteshusen signalerar makt och jag minns fortfarande med obehag de nätter för länge sedan då jag jobbade som tidningsbud i kvarteren och steg in i utsmyckade men ödsligt ekande entréer med en packe Svenska Dagbladet under armen. 
Bara vissa klara höstdagar när många lövträd brinner kan jag känna för Östermalm – sikten längs breda avenyer, ljud som färdas långt, rymd och vemod över staden. 
Det är mitten av augusti, en av de sista kvava dagarna av den första valrörelseveckan. Folk har kommit tillbaka från sina semestrar. En och annan valaffisch har dykt upp, men ännu är valrörelsen påfallande loj. Jag ser mig omkring. Där är Arkitekturhögskolan. Snart är jag på väg åt rätt håll på Östermalmsgatan: till nummer 36. Det är bara några steg dit. 
Varför har jag aldrig sökt upp den adressen tidigare? Det ligger ett stort, gult patricierhus i tre våningar från förrförra seklet på nummer 36, i hörnet av Engelbrektsgatan, ett stenkast bort från den djupgröna Humlegården. När jag får syn på fastigheten vaknar jag till i värmen. Vagt hoppas jag att det kanske ska kunna gå att stiga in i portuppgången för att se lite av byggnaden inifrån. Men det är, visar det sig, inget bostadshus längre, utan en ambassad. Romania Ambasada står det på den stora porten. Några fönster står på glänt. En ljuskrona glittrar bakom gardinerna. Suddiga röster hörs ut på gatan. 
Jag står en stund och betraktar det vackra huset. Ett antal mycket gamla syrener växer på den lilla gräsmattan framför huset, med de gröna löven hängande över trottoaren. Deras stammar är tjocka, vridna som på uråldriga olivträd. Hur gamla är de? De kan knappast ha stått där sedan huset byggdes på 1880­talet. Men de kan mycket väl ha funnits där när Olof Palme som pojke steg ut genom porten, kanske med barnflickan Margit Andersson i handen. Med ena handen öppnade hon järngrinden mot gatan, med den andra höll hon i fyraåringen Olof. 
Antingen har tiden stått stilla i nästan ett sekel på den här adressen, eller också har bara ett äldre, högborgerligt Sverige 
återvänt och gjort sig påmint mer självklart i samhällsklimatet – men nog skulle Olof och Margit kunna stiga ut, livslevande och småskrattande, när som helst, genom den där porten, ut släppta av de två portvakterskor som höll uppsikt. 

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Av Viktor Bertung - 12 mars 2011 13:23

För det första är arbetslösheten skyhög, för det andra stängs folk in i FAS 3-åtgärder som ibland kränker människor och som innebär att pengar hälls ner i företag; för det tredje har idén med jobbcoaching inte alls visat sig fungera trots miljardkostnader; för det fjärde har Alliansens a-kassepolitik gjort det svårare att vara med i facket; för det femte har regeringen dragit ner forskningen kring arbetslivet.    
För det sjätte kom idag beskedet att Försäkringskassan måste dra ner ett stort antal tjänster, trots att de anställda redan går på knäna. I praktiken betyder det att alla som drabbats av problem på arbetsmarknaden får det värre. 
Varför exploderar inte allt detta i händerna på regeringen? Förr eller senare gör det nog det. 

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Av Viktor Bertung - 12 mars 2011 13:22

I ett läge där partiet är i opposition längsta tidsperioden på hundra år och väljarstödet är det lägsta sedan 1914 är det tal som nyvalda S-ledaren ska hålla på kongressen viktigt. Den nya S-ledaren bör få tid att förbereda sig och talet i två veckor. Det påminde Aftonbladet om i går på nyhetsplats. 
Tidningen drar ett varv till på spekulationsskivan gällande ny S-ledare. Sedan tio dagar har det pratats om fyra män. Förutom 55-plusaren i ålder Sven-Erik Österberg, som var favorit första tiden sedan Mona Sahlin meddelade sin avgång, är det Thomas Östros och Mikael Damberg. 
Den fjärde, minst kända, är Tomas Eneroth. Han uppges av Aftonbladets Lena Mellin ligga sämst till och vara ”ointresserad” att bli partiledare. 
Därmed är vi, om man ska tro Mellin, nere i en kamp mellan tre kandidater där bara en ska återstå om en vecka. Låt oss se på dessa. 
Österberg är äldre än de andra två, 45-årige Östros och Damberg, 39 år. Och för några veckor sedan sattes några kriterier för ny S-ledare upp. En var att det skulle vara en person som satt en längre tid, inte en övergångslösning som sitter fyra, fem år. Därmed räknade en del ut Österberg. Men numera sitter partiledare i snitt i tio år. Österberg skulle därmed kunna sitta tio år innan han blir folkpensionär. 
Ett annat, kanske inofficiellt, kriterium som det pratats om är att en ny S-ledare ska kunna vinna val. Det angavs dock inte vad som menas med det. 
En ny S-ledare skulle kunna lyfta sitt parti över 35 procent och S skulle ändå förbli i opposition. Tänk valresultatet 2006 i repris. 
Om man definierar vinna val som att en S-ledare ska föra S tillbaka till regeringsmakten och ministerposter kan en ny S-ledare mycket väl driva ned S i det sämsta väljarstödet på hundra år, nedåt 28 procent, och det skulle ändå vara en valseger. Detta genom att S med en mitteninriktad politik vinner tre, fyra viktiga procentenheter väljare från allianspartierna. Om S då tappar fem, sex procentenheter till Vänster- och Miljöpartiet spelar inte så stor roll. Alliansen blir den uppenbara förloraren i valet 2014 och tappar sin legitimitet att regera vidare. Ny given regeringsbildare blir nya S-ledaren. 
Om han bildar en S-minoritetsregering (i mitten) eller en koalition med till en början Miljöpartiet och sedan även ett eller två av de små allianspartierna kvittar. Med ett återtagande av regeringsmakten ges S möjlighet att åter vara främsta aktör i att sätta tonläget i svensk politik. 
Den av kandidaterna som har bäst förutsättningar att åstadkomma ett återerövrande av regeringsmakten med en mitteninriktning är Mikael Damberg. 
Österberg skulle nog mer gå in för att stabilisera partiet med en ganska traditionell S-politik, i hopp om att även öka väljarstödet lite grann. 
Och Östros är troligen för förknippad med sina förluster i debatterna mot finansminister Borg i valrörelsen (som väljarna uppfattade det). Östros har därmed svårt att åstadkomma vare sig en ökning av S-stödet, i kraft av att S-väljarna känner igen en klassisk välfärdsinriktad S-politik, eller en mittenpolitisk offensiv som vinner väljare från alliansen. 
Om man läst Aftonbladets ledarsida i partiledarfrågan är den inriktad på att S ska försöka vinna valet 2014 i meningen komma i regeringsställning. S ska dock inte prata om att de vill vinna eller vara fixerade vid (Nya) Moderaterna utan anamma ett maktvinnande agerande utan att negativa, makthungriga, delar av det märks. Läs Clintons och Blairs att lägga sig nära motståndaren, eller Nya Moderaternas fokusering på problem, typ utanförskap, utan att nämna motståndaren. Aftonbladets ledarsida pekade i realiteten ut Damberg som sin kandidat fredagen för tolv dagar sedan. 
S-folket, även i Dalarna, har därmed tre kandidater med tre alternativ att förhålla sig till. Det är bara välja den man gillar mest, eller ogillar minst, av: 
Österbergs igenkänningsbara S, med god ökningschans om än inte given regeringsmaktschans. 

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Av Viktor Bertung - 12 mars 2011 13:21

Småpartierna till vänster och höger om S+M-alliansen var kritiska och ville ha en generösare flyktingpolitik och en annan utformning av politiken. De var inte överens i allt, det var inte S+M-alliansen heller, men de hade stor samstämmighet i sin kritik. 
Det dussin år som S regerade från 1994 såg skillnaderna mellan partierna ut på detta sätt. Två stora partier, S och M, ville hålla flyktingpolitiken ganska stram, om än inte lika restriktiv som övriga nordiska grannländer. Och fem små partier, V och MP till vänster och FP, C och KD till höger, ville ha ett generösare flyktingmottagande och delvis utformning, exempelvis sådant som rör invandring av arbetskraft. 
När de borgerliga partierna vann valet 2006 fick de majoritet i riksdagen för första gången sedan 1982 och kunde bestämma reglerna för flykting- och invandringspolitiken. Trots det såg det dominerande regeringspartiet M till att i stort sett S+M-linjen från de drygt tio tidigare åren fullföljdes, med några justeringar. En var att invandring av arbetskraft, inte bara från EU-området, underlättades. Miljöpartiet ställde sig positivt till det. 
I ett avseende hade dock S+M-linjen brutits. Det var rörande att en amnesti genomfördes för papperslösa flyktingar som var gömda i landet. Det skedde i hög grad på Miljöpartiets initiativ. En rad fall med apatiska flyktingbarn hade bidragit till det beslutet. 
I går kom nyheten att minoritetsregeringen Reinfeldt gjort upp med Miljöpartiet i flykting- och migrationspolitiken. Med den skaffar sig regeringen en majoritet för sin politik på området, förankrad över blockgränsen. 
Att ökad arbetskraftsinvandring ingår i uppgörelsen bidrar emellertid till att S och V inte kan ställa sig bakom den. Sådan har visat sig främst ske av personer som kommer för att jobba i så kallade lågkvalificerade yrken. Några personer som blir verksamma i högkvalificerade yrken kommer också. Men de har redan goda förutsättningar att jobba i Sverige med dagens system i sina ibland expertliknande yrken. 
Bedömare anser att det i uppgörelsen är M som fått vika sig för de tre mindre regeringspartierna och Miljöpartiet, som alla vill hålla fast vid en ganska generös asyl- och flyktingpolitik. Vad gäller möjligheterna till arbetskraftsinvandring har dock de borgerliga partierna fått igenom sin linje. 
Om de tre rödgröna partierna hade vunnit valet hade troligen inte en uppgörelse mellan dem lett till denna typ av arbetskraftsinvandring. Miljöpartiet legitimerar alltså en i hög grad borgerlig politik på arbetskraftsinvandringens område. Den politiken kan leda till en lönepress nedåt i yrken där dessa arbetskraftsinvandrare blir verksamma. Detta kanske inte på alla områden, men på vissa. 
Flera positiva saker finns i uppgörelsen. En är att det blir lagligt möjligt att få sjukvård för flyktingar utan uppehållstillstånd. En annan är att barn till flyktingar utan uppehållstillstånd får gå i skola. 
Rent statsfinansiellt har Sverige råd med en flyktingmottagning på ungefär dagens nivå. Det kan ta en tid innan flyktingar är kapabla att klara sig själva i Sverige, med språkkunskaper, arbete och annat. När de gör det kan de bidra till att stärka Sverige ekonomiskt. 

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Av Viktor Bertung - 12 mars 2011 13:20

Småpartierna till vänster och höger om S+M-alliansen var kritiska och ville ha en generösare flyktingpolitik och en annan utformning av politiken. De var inte överens i allt, det var inte S+M-alliansen heller, men de hade stor samstämmighet i sin kritik. 
Det dussin år som S regerade från 1994 såg skillnaderna mellan partierna ut på detta sätt. Två stora partier, S och M, ville hålla flyktingpolitiken ganska stram, om än inte lika restriktiv som övriga nordiska grannländer. Och fem små partier, V och MP till vänster och FP, C och KD till höger, ville ha ett generösare flyktingmottagande och delvis utformning, exempelvis sådant som rör invandring av arbetskraft. 
När de borgerliga partierna vann valet 2006 fick de majoritet i riksdagen för första gången sedan 1982 och kunde bestämma reglerna för flykting- och invandringspolitiken. Trots det såg det dominerande regeringspartiet M till att i stort sett S+M-linjen från de drygt tio tidigare åren fullföljdes, med några justeringar. En var att invandring av arbetskraft, inte bara från EU-området, underlättades. Miljöpartiet ställde sig positivt till det. 
I ett avseende hade dock S+M-linjen brutits. Det var rörande att en amnesti genomfördes för papperslösa flyktingar som var gömda i landet. Det skedde i hög grad på Miljöpartiets initiativ. En rad fall med apatiska flyktingbarn hade bidragit till det beslutet. 
I går kom nyheten att minoritetsregeringen Reinfeldt gjort upp med Miljöpartiet i flykting- och migrationspolitiken. Med den skaffar sig regeringen en majoritet för sin politik på området, förankrad över blockgränsen. 
Att ökad arbetskraftsinvandring ingår i uppgörelsen bidrar emellertid till att S och V inte kan ställa sig bakom den. Sådan har visat sig främst ske av personer som kommer för att jobba i så kallade lågkvalificerade yrken. Några personer som blir verksamma i högkvalificerade yrken kommer också. Men de har redan goda förutsättningar att jobba i Sverige med dagens system i sina ibland expertliknande yrken. 
Bedömare anser att det i uppgörelsen är M som fått vika sig för de tre mindre regeringspartierna och Miljöpartiet, som alla vill hålla fast vid en ganska generös asyl- och flyktingpolitik. Vad gäller möjligheterna till arbetskraftsinvandring har dock de borgerliga partierna fått igenom sin linje. 
Om de tre rödgröna partierna hade vunnit valet hade troligen inte en uppgörelse mellan dem lett till denna typ av arbetskraftsinvandring. Miljöpartiet legitimerar alltså en i hög grad borgerlig politik på arbetskraftsinvandringens område. Den politiken kan leda till en lönepress nedåt i yrken där dessa arbetskraftsinvandrare blir verksamma. Detta kanske inte på alla områden, men på vissa. 
Flera positiva saker finns i uppgörelsen. En är att det blir lagligt möjligt att få sjukvård för flyktingar utan uppehållstillstånd. En annan är att barn till flyktingar utan uppehållstillstånd får gå i skola. 
Rent statsfinansiellt har Sverige råd med en flyktingmottagning på ungefär dagens nivå. Det kan ta en tid innan flyktingar är kapabla att klara sig själva i Sverige, med språkkunskaper, arbete och annat. När de gör det kan de bidra till att stärka Sverige ekonomiskt. 

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